Sports wagering can be extremely profitable if an individual know the secrets often the “smart money” bettors apply to consistently make cash. One of the primary secrets that smart money bettors use can be knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a best case in point. I analyzed the Western Virginia vs. Louisville video game, and concluded of which West Las vegas had this edge in the sport. Nonetheless I also noticed that there was a lot of random and capricious factors, and recommended to my clients that they perform not wager on that game. Here is my own analysis I released prior to the game:
West Va versus Louisville
This game features all the signs of being one regarding the most effective games involving the year, together with both teams coming into the sport 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia against. #5 ranked Louisville, equally along with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s activity was a classic, together with Western world Virginia coming again from appearing down major in the next quarter to winning within overtime.
So what’s the game seem like this year?
In the event this video game were as played with some sort of simple field, West Virginia will probably be a 4-6 stage favorite. Since often the game was in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if can make sense…
West Virginia is usually on an unprecedented rotate. They haven’t lost given that April. 1, 2005, heading 14-0 since they lost to Va Tech. In the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS too. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last on the lookout for video games overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their previous 10 ROAD games.
These kinds of are some very remarkable stats that tilt often the scales in favor connected with WVU intended for tonight’s online. Plus, typically the added in added bonus is that WVU is definitely GETTING +1 point. This may not look like substantially, but in a close up match-up like this, that extra point will certainly make the big difference between some sort of push and a loss.
But ufabet of us wonder what with regards to Louisville?
Louisville’s numbers may be almost as good because WVU’s -except when the idea comes to Louisville covering the point spread. In their previous 10 games, Louisville is merely 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS within their last 10 home video games.
Plus if you’re leaning towards WVU, here’s a frightening stat… Louisville hasn’t missing at your home since 12 , 17, the year 2003! During this present run Louisville is averaging 49. 4 points each game in your own home, while hitting only letting go of 15. 8 points per game on home. In case anyone don’t do the mathmatical, that means due to the fact their particular last home damage they already have averaged beating their particular competitors by about 34 details per game.
Even greater amazing, the average line during these games has only also been 21 points. That methods Louisville has beaten the particular pass on, on average, by means of 13 points per video game at home due to the fact the year 2003.
Wow… how can an individual not in favor of that?
Here’s exactly how…
Nearly all of those stats have been established during the 2006 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to good than great. They have already had recent games that has they’ve only scored 35, twenty three, 24 points. That game titles weren’t against Oh Stycken. or Michigan. These people were being against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St.
Basically that will this is still some sort of close video game to contact. Nonetheless what I look for is West Virginia’s safeguard to carry the time. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St. can most hold Louisville under 25 points, then there’s simply no reason to think WVU can’t hold them to this low to mid 20’s. My honest advice is to lay off this kind of game and definitely not bet at all. There are better games this quick with more clear-cut rewards.
The final score with this game was Louisville forty four, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles in addition to allowed Lousiville to gain a new punt for some sort of TD. The results was that will West Virginia’s borders wasn’t so big that they can could still win immediately after making so many mistakes. By simply not betting on this kind of game, people serious concerning gambling saved money many people can put to better work with on forthcoming games.